01
1. Break-even math (the page that prevents the disaster)
Avg project value: $2,800. Gross margin: 45% → $1,260 per closed job. Lead → consult rate (your historical): 40%. Consult → close: 50%. So 1 closed job per 5 leads. MAX COST PER LEAD before losing money: $1,260 ÷ 5 = $252. TARGET CPL for a sane campaign: $85–125 (3:1 minimum return). Denver "custom closets" CPC estimate: $6.50–9.00 → at a realistic 5% landing-page conversion, projected CPL ≈ $130–180. VERDICT — Viable but tight. Two levers before launch: raise LP conversion (see §3) or start with retargeting + brand search only ($600/mo) to learn cheaply.
Design notes
- This page exists to kill bad campaigns before they spend: that is its entire job
- Every figure traces to your inputs (margin, close rate, ticket): no industry hand-waving
- The verdict line forces a real decision: launch, fix the page first, or do not spend